Professor Tommy Koh: Reining in the tribal instinct

Posted on April 1, 2015February 19, 2020

The worst riots in Singapore happened 161 years ago. They were between Hokkien and Teochew groups and killed 600 people. Such dialect wars seem unthinkable today due to concerted efforts to rein in the tribal instinct. Racial and tribal harmony need vigilance to maintain.

 

By Tommy Koh For The Straits Times

 

IN MY last column, "Miracle on Waterloo Street" (Feb 21), I described our religious harmony as one of Singapore's greatest achievements of the past 50 years. In this column, I want to highlight another great achievement: our racial and tribal harmony. I want also to say that they are part of the legacy of our founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew.

Racism and tribalism are two of the world's evils. Discrimination against persons on the basis of their race has ancient roots. It had led to many human tragedies, such as slavery and the Holocaust. Although racial discrimination has been repudiated by the UN Charter, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other instruments of international law, it still exists in many parts of the world.

In recent months, in the United States, several unarmed black men and boys had been killed by police officers. The US Justice Department has accused the police in Ferguson, Missouri, of racism.

On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Selma civil rights march in Alabama, President Barack Obama observed: "This nation's long racial history still casts its long shadow upon us. We know the march is not yet over, the race is not yet won."

I can't help thinking that some of the Obama haters are racists who reject him because of the colour of his skin and not his policies.

Tribalism is as ancient as racism. Discrimination against persons based on their tribe is practised universally but has a special virulence in Africa. The hatred between the Hutus and Tutsis led to a genocide in Rwanda and Burundi. Kenya was nearly torn apart by the rivalry between the Kikuyus and the Luos.

Worst riots in Singapore's history

I SHALL use the word "tribe" in the Singapore context to refer to the intra-ethnic groups, for example, the Chinese clans.

Relations between the clans are so good today most readers will be shocked to learn the worst riots in Singapore's history were between the Hokkiens and Teochews. They occurred in 1854, lasted 10 days and killed 600 people.

Singapore's population consists of people of many races and tribes. Seventy-six per cent are Chinese. However, the Chinese come from different clans and dialect groups. A further 14 per cent are Malays.

Apart from the orang Melayu, they include the Javanese, Sundanese, Minang, Boyanese, Acehnese, Bataks, Bugis, etc. Seven per cent are Indians. The Indians comprise Tamils, Malayalees, Bengalis, Sikhs, Punjabis, Gujaratis, Sindhis, etc.

The remaining 3 per cent of the population consists of Eurasians, Jews, Arabs, Armenians and many others. The population of Singapore is therefore one of the most diverse in the world.

Maintaining unity and harmony

IN 1965, newly independent Singapore was faced with the enormous challenge of uniting this microcosm of humanity into one nation and maintaining peace and harmony among the different races and tribes.

The prospects were not promising because a year earlier, on July 21, 1964, during the celebration of Prophet Muhammad's birthday, an incident turned into a riot between the Malays and the Chinese.

Twenty-three people were killed and 454 were injured. Later that year, on Sept 2, another riot occurred. This one killed 13 people and injured 106 others. These two racial riots of 1964 were seared into the collective memories of Singaporeans who were determined to prevent their recurrence. What are the most important steps which Singapore has taken to secure racial and tribal harmony?

·      Equal protection and nondiscrimination

First, Singapore has used its Constitution and legal system to prohibit racial discrimination and to ensure that all persons are equal before the law and entitled to the equal protection of the law. No one in Singapore has any doubt that the law in the books is the law in practice.

·      Presidential Council for Minority Rights

Second, the rights of minorities are protected by the Presidential Council for Minority Rights. The council has the power to scrutinise all proposed legislation in order to ensure that it does not discriminate against the members of any minority.

The council has been criticised for not having issued any adverse report to date. I think we should be pleased because there has been no need for it to do so.

·      Ethnic quotas

Third, the State has taken a proactive and interventionist policy on encouraging citizens of different races to live together and not in racial ghettos.

Since 1989, the Housing and Development Board (HDB) has implemented a policy to ensure that the population in each block and each neighbourhood of public housing estates is made up of Chinese, Malays, Indians and others in the same ratios as in the general population.

Since 85 per cent of Singaporeans live in HDB housing, this means that a whole generation of Singaporeans has grown up living next door or in close proximity to neighbours of different races. HDB is therefore not just a developer and landlord. It has also played a significant role in nation-building.

·      National service

Fourth, I believe that national service has played a very important role in nation-building. In Singapore, national service is compulsory and universal. All young men have to spend two years in national service. The experience of training and living together with comrades of different races in their platoons, sections and companies is a life-changing experience.

When they complete their training, they not only feel more patriotic but also more bonded as fellow Singaporeans. NS has probably contributed more than any other experience to the rapid evolution of our common identity as Singaporeans and to mutual understanding between Singaporeans of different races.

·      Racial Harmony Day

Fifth, the first racial riot of 1964 was on July 21. Each year, students in all our schools celebrate Racial Harmony Day on July 21. We also have formed inter-racial confidence circles and harmony circles to promote inter-racial understanding and reduce mistrust, especially between Malays and non-Malays. Due to these initiatives, Singapore has developed a strong cultural norm in favour of such understanding. This is why the public reacted so strongly to Ms Amy Cheong when she made a pejorative comment about Malay weddings.

·      Meritocracy

Sixth, the meritocratic system in Singapore is the best assurance to minorities that they compete with the majority on equal terms. A Malaysian friend once asked me why there were so many Indians in high places in Singapore. My answer was that they were there on merit and it was proof that Singapore is not a racist country.

We live in a troubled world. Racism and tribalism continue to bedevil many countries. We are very fortunate that we have enjoyed 50 years of racial and tribal peace and harmony.

We must treasure this precious achievement.

 

stopinion@sph.com.sg

The writer is special adviser, Institute of Policy Studies, of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

Professor Tommy Koh: Remembering Lee Kuan Yew – Our chief diplomat to the world

Posted on March 25, 2015February 19, 2020

Mr Lee Kuan Yew was the most famous Singaporean in the world. For nearly half a century, he personified Singapore to the world. During his long tenure as Prime Minister (of independent Singapore), from 1965 to 1990, he was the principal architect of Singapore's foreign policy.

Later, as senior minister and minister mentor, he continued to give his successors valuable advice on our external relations. It would not be wrong to say that he served as our chief diplomat to the world.

Singapore is a very small country. However, it enjoys a role and influence in the world not enjoyed by other countries of similar size. A British newspaper once wrote that Singapore punches above its weight. This is due to three factors: our record of domestic achievements, our skilful diplomacy and the Lee Kuan Yew factor.

Why was Mr Lee so greatly admired by foreign leaders? Because of his intellectual brilliance, his power of analysis and judgment, his eloquence and charisma, and his willingness to share his candid and disinterested views. His longevity also gave him an advantage as he evolved from being the brilliant Prime Minister of Singapore to being a wise elder statesman.

Mr Lee travelled extensively on behalf of Singapore. He befriended and earned the respect of many foreign leaders, in government, business and academia. He had an impressive global network. For example, he was respected by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, German leader Helmut Schmidt, French leader Jacques Chirac and Japanese leader Kiichi Miyazawa. He knew and was respected by every American president, from Lyndon Johnson to Barack Obama. Two of America's thought leaders, Dr Henry Kissinger and Dr George Shultz, are among his many admirers.

One of the greatest honours the United States can confer on a foreign leader is an invitation to address a joint session of the US Congress. I will never forget Oct 9, 1985. On that beautiful autumn day, Mr Lee addressed a packed joint session of Congress.

At that time, the protectionist tide was running strong in the US body politic. In his speech, which received several standing ovations, he explained why it was in the strategic interest of the US to continue to support free trade and open economies. The senator sitting next to me, Mr Edward Kennedy, confided in me afterwards that he was not previously aware of the linkage between free trade and US strategic interests in the world. The speech did help to stem the tide of protectionism in the US Congress.

Mr Lee's enduring contribution to Singapore's foreign policy can be summed up in the following seven principles.

1 PRAGMATISM

First, our foreign policy is based on pragmatism and not on any doctrine or ideology. The scholars who have written that Singapore's foreign policy is based on realism are mistaken. If it were based on realism, we would not have attached so much importance to international law or to the United Nations. Our constant lodestar is to promote the security and prosperity of Singapore.

2 SELF-RELIANCE

Second, we rely, first and foremost, on ourselves. Believing that the world does not owe us a living, Singapore did not seek foreign aid from the developed countries. We did not want to develop a dependency mentality. Instead, we concentrated our energies on attracting foreign investment and creating jobs for our people. We started building up our armed forces and introduced national  service in order to develop a capacity to deter aggression.

3 ACCEPT REALITIES

Third, we accept the world as it is and not as we would like it to be. We have no illusions about the world. We take a clinical attitude towards facts and realities. This does not mean that we are passive and fatalistic. Not at all. We have been extremely proactive in taking the leadership to form such groupings as the Forum of Small States and the Global Governance Group. We know that we live in an unfair and dangerous world. We know that small countries will always be vulnerable to the pressures of bigger countries.

4 ASEAN'S CENTRALITY

Fourth, Singapore has a fundamental commitment to Asean and to making Southeast Asia a region of peace and prosperity. Singapore is a strong supporter of Asean integration and is working closely with our partners to ensure the success of Asean's transition from an association to a community by this year. We took an active part in drafting the Asean Charter and support Asean's ambition to become a more rules-based institution. Singapore strongly supports the central role which Asean plays in the regional architecture. We will do everything within our power to ensure that Asean remains united, independent and neutral.

5 ASIA-PACIFIC COMMUNITY

Fifth, Singapore is committed to the vision of building an Asia-Pacific community. Singapore wants a balance of power in the region and welcomes the positive roles which the US, China, Japan, India, the European Union and Russia play in the political, economic and cultural lives of the region.

Singapore supports trade liberalisation and regional economic integration through both the Trans-Pacific Partnership, under the aegis of Apec, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Singapore supports dialogue, confidence-building and cooperation via institutions such as the Asean Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit.

6 BE A CONTRARIAN

Sixth, Singapore should not be afraid to defy conventional wisdom. During the 1960s, Singapore welcomed foreign investment by multinational corporations when the rest of the Third World viewed them as the purveyors of evil. Singapore was not afraid to be criticised by its Asean partners when it decided to negotiate a free trade agreement with the US. Singapore was willing to welcome the US military presence in the region when it was forced to leave the Philippines.

7 BE A GOOD GLOBAL CITIZEN

Seventh, Singapore should try to be a good global citizen. Within Asean, Singapore has played a leading role in trying to narrow the gap between the old and new members. Singapore maintains training centres in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam to train the government officials of those countries. Under the Singapore Cooperation Programme, run by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Singapore trains 7,000 government officials from other countries annually. To date, Singapore has trained 80,000 government officials from 170 countries.

 

Ambassador-at-large

Tommy Koh, 77, is an international lawyer, a diplomat and a former law faculty dean

Copyright © 2015 Singapore Press Holdings. 

Tembusu Alumni David Hoe – Featured as part of NUS Admissions

Posted on March 2, 2015February 19, 2020

David Hoe

Year 4
Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences
Ministry of Education Scholar

As an aspiring leader interested in educating the future of our country, David values the opportunities to make diverse connections and give back to the community. The rigorous training in his major of Economics, as well as exposure during his exchange programme experiences, will prepare him to meet challenges with an open mind and help those who need it the most.

Coming from humble beginnings, David’s tenacity to learn has helped him become the first Normal (Technical) student to qualify for a Junior College in 2006 and receive a teaching scholarship from the Ministry of Education (MOE). David also gives back to the community by pioneering programmes to mentor disadvantaged youths, so that they will be motivated to achieve their goals like he did.

Be it the Chua Thian Poh Community Leadership Programme at University Town or Gobi Globe Trekker at Tembusu College, David hopes that an education at NUS will help him open his eyes to the world, and enable him to foster the same ethic in his students thereafter.

Check out the feature on David: http://www.nus.edu.sg/oam/whynus/profile/faculty-of-arts-and-social-sciences.html

Backpacking trip in Peru after student exchange programme in Mexico

Reading programming at Jurong Family Centre

50 Years of Singapore’s Diplomacy: Highlights and Insights

Posted on February 26, 2015February 19, 2020

Raffles Ambassador Series Lecture 2015

Tuesday, 24 February 2015

50 Years of Singapore’s Diplomacy”: Highlights and Insights

Professor Tommy Koh, AAL, MFA, Singapore

1 No country lives in complete isolation. Every country has neighbours and has relations with other counties in the world. This is why every country has a department or ministry of foreign affairs or external relations. Singapore has a Ministry of Foreign Affairs. What I would like to do this morning is to capture five highlights of Singapore’s diplomacy in the past fifty years.

2 But, first, let me explain what are the objectives of diplomacy. Our first objective is to protect the independence and territorial integrity of our country. Our second objective is to promote the national interests of our country. Our third objective is to enhance our relations with other countries and, when problems arise, to solve them in a peaceful and mutually beneficial manner. Our fourth objective is to work for a peaceful, prosperous, just and humane world, based upon the principles of the UN Charter.

3 The second caveat I want to make is that a diplomatic does not work in a vacuum. He represents a specific country His effectiveness will depend, not just on his ability, but on the size of his country, its economic, military and soft power. This is less true in multilateral diplomacy where, on occasions, a brilliant diplomat may enjoy more influence than his country.

First Objective

4 Singapore was born in unusual circumstances. Because of those unusual circumstances, there were some uncertainty about the genuineness of Singapore’s independence and sovereignty. Our first diplomatic objective was to gain the recognition of the world. This we accomplished by joining the United Nations, the Non-Aligned Group and the Commonwealth. In 1968, three years after our independence, I was sent to the UN to consolidate Singapore’s position in the community of nations and to make friends for Singapore. Today, Singapore is a respected member of the international community. It has diplomatic relations with 188 countries. There are 70 diplomatic missions in Singapore. Singapore has established embassies, high commissions and consulates in 32 countries.

Second Objective

5 Singapore is located in the heart of South-East Asia. This is our destiny. It is therefore in Singapore’s national interest to work for a South-East Asia which is peaceful and stable. It is in our national interest to work for a strong ASEAN. I call this our second diplomatic objective.

6 Fifty years ago, South-East Asia was a region of turmoil and instability. The newly independent countries were fragile and many of them faced insurrections or guerrilla wars. Having been ruled by different colonial masters, the countries were ignorant of one another. There was a deficit of understanding and trust among them. Some pundits in the West thought so poorly of our prospects, that they described our region as the “Balkans of Asia”. Today, South-East Asia is a region of peace and stability and, economically, the fastest growing region of the world.

7 Likewise, when ASEAN was founded 48 years ago, many experts thought it was likely to be a victim of infant mortality. Today, ASEAN is probably the second most successful regional organization in the world. It has helped to keep the region peaceful and to promote a culture of cooperation. By the end of this year, ASEAN’s ambition is to join the 10 economies into a single economy and production platform.

8 ASEAN has also played an indispensable role in bringing all the major powers and other stakeholders together through such forums as the ASEAN + 1, ASEAN + 3, ARF, EAS and ADMM+. ASEAN has also concluded free trade agreements or economic partnership agreements with China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand and is currently pushing for the early conclusion of the RCEP.

9 It would not be wrong to say that our second diplomatic objective has been fulfilled.

Third Objective

10 During the Cold War, the world was dominated by two superpowers, the United States of America and the Soviet Union. Since the end of the Cold War, the world has been dominated by only one superpower, the United States. In terms of military power, the US has no equal. Economically, the US’s share of the world economy has been gradually declining and may soon be surpassed by the size of the Chinese economy. However, apart from size, the US economy is still the world’s most dynamic and innovative economy. On soft power, the US also occupies the apex position.

11 My conclusion is that America is still the most powerful country in the world and is likely to remain so for some years. America undergirds the security order in the Asia-Pacific. America is the founder of the Post-Second World War world liberal order which has benefitted the world, including Singapore. It is therefore in Singapore’s national interest to be close to America and to have a strong relationship with her. I would call this our third diplomatic objective.

12 In spite of the differences in size, geography, history and culture, I would describe our relationship with the US as substantive, comprehensive and mutually beneficial. We are major trading partners, and we have just celebrated the 10^th anniversary of our free trade agreement. The US has more foreign direct investment in Singapore than anywhere else in Asia. Singapore is not a military ally of the US. However, Singapore allows the US airforce and navy to use our facilities. The US Navy has stationed several Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) in Singapore. There is a substantial community of US companies and families in Singapore. Many Singapore students study at the leading universities of America. The people-to-people ties between our two countries are very good.

Fourth Objective

13 Our fourth diplomatic objective is to build very close ties with the major powers and economies, viz, China, Japan, India and the EU. Singapore has concluded free trade agreements or economic partnership agreements with all four of them. The one with the EU is pending ratification.

14 Although Singapore may be a small country, it enjoys considerable economic power. For example, for the past two years, Singapore has surpassed Japan to become the largest foreign investor in China. Singapore is also the largest foreign investor in India. Singapore is a major export market for both Japan and the EU.

15 Apart from economics, Singapore has also forged very strong political and cultural ties with all four of them. Our foreign policy is to be a friend to all and an enemy of none. We wish to be equally close to ASEAN, the US, China, Japan, India, the EU, etc. When they quarrel, for example, between China and Japan or between China and the US, we do not wish to take sides but to remain neutral.

Fifth Objective

16 Small countries tend to be ignored by the big countries. Small countries are sometimes trampled upon by their bigger neighbours. International society is more hierarchical than democratic. Although Singapore is a realist, it is not a fatalist. It does not accept the status quo as immutable. It has been proactive at the UN in uniting the smaller countries and to amplify their voices and influences.

17 In 1992, Singapore took the initiative to establish the Forum of Small States (FOSS). All countries with a population of below 10 million are eligible to join. Its current membership is 105, slightly over half the membership of the UN.

18 In 2009, in response to the global financial crisis, the leaders of G7 took the lead to form G20. Many countries, excluded from G20, fear that their views and interests would be ignored. Singapore therefore took the initiative to form a new grouping of 30 small and medium sized countries. The group is called the Global Governance Group or 3G. The group caucuses on issues on the agenda of G20 and submits papers on those issues to G20. 3G has also insisted that the Secretary-General of the UN be invited to attend all G20 meetings.

19 Perhaps because of the leadership role which Singapore plays in FOSS and 3G and because Singapore is one of the world’s largest financial centres, the Prime Minister of Singapore has been frequently invited by the hosts of G20 to attend their summits.

Conclusion

20 Let me conclude. During the past 50 years, Singapore’s diplomats have worked hard to protect Singapore’s independence, territorial integrity and national interests. They have succeeded, partly because of their abilities and partly because of Singapore’s economic, military and soft power. We have succeeded in turning South-East Asia, from a region of instability to a region of peace and stability. We have made ASEAN into a strong regional organization and developed a culture of cooperation. We have forged a strong relationship with the United States as well as with China, Japan, India, the EU and others. We have played a leadership role in FOSS and 3G. As a result, Singapore enjoys a standing in the world which one would not expect for a country of its size. The weekly magazine, the Economist, once described Singapore as a country which punches above its weight. Will Singapore continue to do so in the years ahead?

. . . . . . .

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Professor Tommy Koh: Opening of the Meeting of the International Studies Association

Posted on January 8, 2015February 19, 2020

 

Salutations

          President Arnoud de Meyer, Dean James Tang, Professor Amitav Acharya, Professor Thomas Volgy, Professor Jacqueline Braveboy-Wagner, Ladies and Gentlemen.

2        I join Arnoud and James in welcoming the members of the International Studies Association to Singapore.  Founded in 1959, the ISA has over 6,000 members and is regarded as the premier organisation for scholars and practitioners in the field of international studies.  You do us honour by holding your meeting in Singapore.

3        I would like to congratulate my good friend, Professor Amitav Acharya, for being the first Asian to have been elected as the President of ISA.  I thank Amitav for inviting me to speak to you.  I tried to convince him that I am not qualified to speak to this learned community but he would not take no for an answer.

 

Two Anniversaries

4      I would like to explain why I have chosen to speak on the topic:  Will There Be Peace in Asia?  War and Peace have been on my mind recently because in 2014, we commemorated the 100^th anniversary of the outbreak of World War I.  An old book, The Guns of August, and a new book, The Sleepwalkers, provided much food for thought.  The two big lessons I have learnt from WWI are that, one, economic inter-dependence is not a guarantee of peace and two, we must never underestimate man’s capacity for irrationality.  This year, we mark the 70^th anniversary of the end of World War II.

5        Asia is living in a golden moment of history.  After decades and centuries of stagnation and regress, the region is on the rise.  Inspired by the success of Japan, other Asian countries and economies have grown and are growing rapidly.  South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore have already caught up with the OECD countries.  ASEAN, China and India are determined to complete their journeys to become developed and modern countries. 

6        Asia’s prospects are good.  However, this is predicated on one essential condition – peace.  If peace is replaced by war and conflict, Asia’s rise would be scuttled.  Without peace, economic development and nation-building would be difficult, if not possible.

 

Threats To Peace

7                 What are the potential threats to peace in Asia?  I have identified the following six potential hot spots:

(i)           The Korean peninsula

(ii)          India and Pakistan

(iii)        India and China

(iv)        China and Japan

(v)         The South China Sea

(vi)        China and USA

 

The Korean Peninsula

8        The situation on the Korean peninsula is inherently unstable.  This is due to the unpredictable nature of the North Korean regime, the fact that it has both nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and the fact that Pyongyang needs an external enemy in order to unite the people to support the Kim regime.  China seems to be frustrated with its North Korean ally but does not seem to have the leverage to influence its behaviour.  Rebuffed by China, Kim has turned to Russia for protection and support.  The Six Party Talks has been suspended and there are currently no plans to resume them. The recent exchange of new year greetings between the leaders of North and South Korea is a small but positive development.  I expect the Korean peninsula to be peaceful in 2015.

 

Will India and Pakistan Live in Peace?

9        Although 68 years have passed since the partition of British-administered India into two states, India and Pakistan, the wounds of that bitter partition have not healed.  The dispute over Kashmir continues to rankle and pose an obstacle to win-win cooperation between them.  Pakistan is politically fragile and faces a growing threat from the Pakistani Taliban.  The fact that both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons makes a conflict between them more dangerous but also less likely because the stakes are so high.  The new Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, is focused on India’s accelerated development.  He wants peace with all his neighbours, as was shown by his gesture of inviting their leaders to his inauguration.  I believe that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan wants the same thing for his country.

 

Will China and India Rise Together?

10      China and India have been friends for over 1,000 years.  As Amartya Sen has written in his book, The Argumentative Indian, “intellectual links between China and India, stretching over much of the first millennium and beyond, were important in the history of the two countries.”  For example, in the 8^th century, the Chinese Emperor appointed an Indian scientist, Gautama Siddhartha (Qutan Sida) as the President of the Chinese Board of Astronomy.

11      In the 1950s, relations between China and India were very good.  PM Nehru had extended India’s hand of friendship to China, at a time when it was being treated as a pariah by the West.  When Premier Zhou En Lai visited New Delhi, he was greeted by banners proclaiming that Chinese and Indians were brothers.

12      The 1962 border conflict between China and India had unfortunately put an end to the era of good relations between them.  There is a deficit of trust between them as well as serious problems concerning their borders, water, trade and Tibet.  However, they share many more convergent than divergent interests.  The world is big enough to accommodate a rising China and a rising India.  There is no reason for them to engage in a zero sum competition. 

 

China-Japan Ties

13      I would like to put the current disagreement between China and Japan over Senkaku/Diaoyu in perspective.  Relations between China and Japan go back 2,000 years.  With four exceptions, they have lived at peace with each other.  The two countries are geographically neighbours, share many historical and cultural affinities and are economically inter-dependent.  For example, China is Japan’s largest trading partner.  Until two years ago, Japan was China’s largest foreign investor.  Economically, Japan needs China and China needs Japan.  It is logical for them to cooperate and illogical for them to treat each other as adversaries.

15      However, logic and reason do not always prevail in relations between states.  The relations between China and Japan are burdened by history and rising nationalism on both sides.  I would, however, remind the two countries that from 1972 until about 2012, a period of 40 years, the two countries were able to put aside their differences and focused on a positive agenda.  I wish to recall that on 7 May 2008, President Hu Jintao of China and Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda of Japan issued a joint statement, pledging to turn the East China Sea, into a sea of peace, friendship and cooperation.

16.     After a hiatus of over two years, the leaders of China and Japan, met in Beijing, in November 2014, on the side-lines of the APEC Summit.  The two leaders agreed to improve their bilateral relations and eschew the path of confrontation.  We should see a gradual improvement in their relations in 2015.

 

South China Sea

17.     Relations between China and Southeast Asia/ASEAN are strong, multi-dimentional and mutually beneficial.  There is, however, one issue, the South China Sea, which could disrupt this happy state of affairs.  China and 4 ASEAN countries, Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam have territorial disputes in the South China Sea.  In 2002, ASEAN and China signed a Declaration of Conduct on the South China Sea.  The two sides are currently negotiating a binding Code of Conduct but progress has been extremely slow.  In the meantime, the Philippines has invoked its rights under the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and instituted arbitral proceedings against China.  China has refused to participate in those proceedings on the ground that the arbitral tribunal lacks jurisdiction.  Vietnam has recently submitted a statement to the Arbitral Tribunal.

18.     The South China Sea disputes involve complicated questions of law, history and power.  ASEAN, as a group, does not take sides on the merits of the disputes.  ASEAN is, however, united on the stand that these disputes must be resolved peacefully and on the basis of international law, including UNCLOS.

 

China-US Relations

19.     The most important bilateral relationship is that between China and the United States.  Although the two countries engage each other, in regular dialogue, at different levels, there is an enormous deficit of trust between them.  For this reason, and because of their historical and cultural differences, they do not understand each other and misread each other’s intentions.

20.     For example, the Chinese interprete President Barack Obama’s pivot to Asia or rebalancing to Asia, as a disguised form of containment.  The Chinese believe that their problems with their neighbours are due to American machinations.

21.     The US, on the other hand, suspects that the Chinese agenda is to reduce US influence and leadership in the region, in the short term and to oust her from the region, in the long-term.  The Americans perceive China’s activities as an attempt to create a Chinese sphere of influence and to impose Pax Sinica on her neighbours.

22.     Can the incumbent superpower and the rising power live at peace with each other?  That is the critical question for us to ponder.  History is not helpful because one study by Harvard University showed that in a majority of such cases, war was the consequence.  War is, however, not inevitable.  I believe that President Obama and President Xi are determined to find a peaceful path forward.

 

CONCLUSION

23.     I shall conclude.  Many countries and peoples in Asia will be celebrating the lunar new year on the 19^th February.  The new year is the Year of the Sheep, a symbol of peace.  As an optimist, I believe that Asia will be at peace in the Year of the Sheep.

 

. . . . . .