By Professor Tommy Koh: Trump-Kim summit in Singapore: From brink of war to peace

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America was attacked by terrorists on 11 September 2001. It caused a paradigm change in United States foreign and security policy. The new priority was to fight terrorism and its sponsors. In his famous address to the US Congress, on 29 January 2002, President George W Bush named Iran, Iraq and North Korea as forming the “Axis of Evil”. Bush accused them of sponsoring terrorism and seeking to acquire weapons of mass destruction.

The President of Iraq, Sadam Hussin, was overthrown and killed. The leaders of North Korea feared that they were on the US list for regime change. They decided that in order to protect their regime they must develop a capacity to deter a US attack. In other words, they must develop nuclear weapons and ballistic weapons capable of striking the US.  A year later, in 2003 – North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In 2006, it conducted its first underground nuclear test. The desire to develop a first-strike nuclear capability to protect its own regime – this is the logic behind North Korea’s seemingly reckless behaviour and ratcheting up of its nuclear weapons programme. Once it has achieved this objective, North Korea’s agenda was to seek a summit with the US President. It was prepared to give up its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles in exchange for what it wanted from the US.

And this week, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the grandson of founder Kim Il Sung, who was succeeded by his son Kim Jong Il, did exactly that.

Peace Initiatives

Despite its reputation as a backward, even rogue state, North Korea in fact has demonstrated remarkable diplomatic skills. Consider the Winter Olympic Games in February in South Korea. North Korea sent a delegation to participate in the games. Chairman Kim sent his sister Kim Yo Jong to represent him at the opening ceremony. She visited President Moon Jae-in, in Seoul and conveyed a message that Chairman Kim would like to hold a summit with President Moon Jae-in, at Panmunjom.

The Kim-Moon Summits

The first summit between President Moon and Chairman Kim was held on 25 April 2018 at Panmunjom. Following the summit, the two leaders adopted the Panmunjom Declaration.

The Declaration stated that the two countries will bring about the “complete denuclearization” of the Korean peninsula, and will replace the armistice agreement that ended the 1950-1953 Korean war with a peace treaty.

South Korea sent its envoys to convey Chairman Kim’s message to US President Donald Trump and to persuade him to hold a summit with Chairman Kim. President Trump agreed to do so without the usual pre-conditions.

President Trump sent the then-director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Mike Pompeo, to Pyongyang, to see Chairman Kim and to verify his sincerity. As a gesture of goodwill, Kim released the three US hostages detained in North Korea. When Pompeo became the Secretary of State, he would hold a second meeting with Kim in Pyongyang.

The two sides agreed to hold a summit on 12 June in Singapore. However, when North Korea attacked Vice-President Mike Pence and National Security Adviser, John Bolton, for comparing North Korea to Libya, President Trump cancelled the summit. To rescue the situation, Chairman Kim sought a second summit with President Moon on 26 May 2018, in Panmunjom. Chairman Kim requested President Moon to convey to President Trump, his commitment to denuclearise the Korean peninsula and his “fixed will” to meet with President Trump. President Trump agreed to reinstate the summit on 12 June in Singapore.

The Trump-Kim Summit in Singapore

It was against such an on-off-on backdrop that the summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim was held on June 12 at the Capella hotel in Sentosa.

The meetings were successful, concluding with smiling photo opportunities and a ceremony where both leaders signed a Joint Statement before leaving Singapore. Chairman Kim called on PM Lee Hsien Loong and took a night tour of Singapore. President Trump was hosted to lunch by PM Lee at the Istana. For three days, 10 to 12 June, the eyes of the world were on Singapore.

Some Reflections

Was the summit a success?

First, I want to address the issue of the cost of hosting the summit. Some Singaporeans have asked me whether it was justifiable to spend $20 million to hold the summit.

My answer is an emphatic yes. The publicity and goodwill generated were worth more than $20 million. Already, several marketing agencies have estimated that the cost of publicity from the event over those three days alone would be worth at least 10 times the amount.

Reuters reported: “Andrew Darling, CEO and founder of communications agency West Pier Ventures, said it would cost more than S$200 million to generate the kind of publicity Singapore has received so far by hosting the summit.

“Media intelligence firm Meltwater said the coverage over the three days around the summit equated to $270 million of advertising, while the month leading up to it was worth $767 million. “

But the benefits for Singapore are not just financial in nature. It has enhanced our reputation as a safe, secure, efficient and beautiful city. It has vindicated our diplomacy. It has reinforced our growing reputation as the Geneva of the East.

Singaporeans should remember that we are a very small country. What has kept us on the international map is our ambition to be relevant and useful to the world. By hosting the summit, we are being useful to the world and helping the cause of peace.

Second, many people are sceptical that North Korea would give up its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Is Chairman Kim sincere or is he trying to deceive the world? What is the quid pro quo? What did he get in return? The truth is that he is indeed getting quite a lot: recognition of the Kim regime as the legitimate government of North Korea and Trump’s commitment to provide security guarantees to North Korea, and the prospect of sanctions ending at a later stage. A peace treaty is also possible. Mr Trump also promised during the press conference after the signing ceremony, that there would be a stop to the war games carried out annually by America and South Korea.

Did the US give away too much, as critics suggest?

Well, President Trump has gained the following benefits: the “complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula”, meaning that North Korea is prepared to give up all of its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and the recovery of the remains of prisoners of war and those missing in action from the war. Mr Trump also disclosed that Chairman Kim had agreed to the destruction of nuclear test sites and the site for the testing of rocket engines.

Which side gave away more?

To be honest, it is hard to do a balance sheet accounting at this point, when too little is known, the hard negotiations have not yet taken place, and the world does not know if either of the two mercurial leaders will honour their signed and verbal pledges.

Instead, the world should celebrate the fact that the Trump-Kim summit has taken place as well as its outcome. We should remember that, a year ago, the two nuclear-armed countries were on the brink of going to war.

Even six months ago, the leaders of the two countries were exchanging threats and insults. It is, of course, true that the Joint Statement has to be implemented by subsequent agreements. There is therefore a lot of work to be done in the months ahead.

We should nevertheless salute President Trump and Chairman Kim for changing the course of world history: moving the world from a war scenario to a peace scenario. We should also salute President Moon Jae-in for the indispensable role he has played to make the summit a reality.

I wish to conclude by hoping that Chairman Kim will do for his country what Deng Xiaoping did for China. Perhaps his brief visit to Singapore has shown him what a future North Korea could look like.

By Professor Tommy Koh: Asean and Japan: Neighbours, friends, partners

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I will begin my essay by stating that Asean and Japan are neighbours, friends and partners. The statement that Asean and Japan are neighbours may surprise some readers. How can I describe them as neighbours when Japan is located in Northeast Asia and Asean in Southeast Asia? My answer is that the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis showed that the two sub-regions were inter-connected.

The fall of the Thai baht led to the fall of the Korean won. One lesson I have learnt from the 1997 Financial Crisis is that what happens in one sub-region will inevitably affect the other sub-region.

In addition to being neighbours, I would also describe Asean and Japan as friends and partners. Do they have shared interests? They have a shared interest in maintaining peace and security in East Asia and in the larger Asia-Pacific. They also have a shared interest in promoting economic growth, sustainable development and economic integration.

COMMON OBJECTIVES

Asean and Japan also share several common objectives. First, they wish to increase trade and investment between them. Second, they support open economies, free trade and the role of the private sector. Third, they aim to increase the flow of tourists, students, interns, investors and entrepreneurs between the two sides. Fourth, they wish to strengthen financial cooperation.

Fifth, they aspire to augment the connectivity between Asean and Japan. Sixth, they wish to uphold the freedom of navigation and the security of strategic sea lanes, such as the Straits of Malacca, Singapore, Lombok and Sunda. Seventh, they support Asean unity and centrality.

The leaders of Asean and Japan enjoy a high comfort level. The relationship is generally free of trouble. In 1977, then Japanese Prime Minister, Takeo Fukuda, pledged that Japan would do its best to establish an equal partnership of mutual confidence and trust, based on “heart-to-heart” understanding between Asean and Japan. The Fukuda spirit remains strong after 41 years.

ASEAN’s VALUE TO JAPAN

What is Asean’s value to Japan? Asean is valuable to Japan in many ways. First, Southeast Asia is endowed with abundant natural resources. The region is a major supplier to Japan of oil, gas, coal, iron ore, palm oil, tin, rubber, etc.

Second, Asean has a combined population of 637 million. With rising levels of education, a strong work ethic, and a willingness to learn, the human resource in Asean is an economic asset to Japan. Japanese companies in Southeast Asia employ millions of workers.

Third, the Asean market is an important market for Japanese exporters of goods and services. Consumers in Southeast Asia have a high regard for the quality and reliability of Japanese products and services. Japan is much admired by Asean’s citizens.

Fourth, Asean sits astride some of the world’s most important sea lanes. Japan’s imports and exports have to pass through these sea lanes. Eighty percent of Japan’s imports of oil from the Middle-East goes through them, making them a lifeline of the Japanese economy.

JAPAN’S VALUE TO ASEAN

What is Japan’s value to Asean? Japan has played a very important role in the development of Southeast Asia and Asean. First, Japan is a role model. Japan’s rise from the ashes of World War II, to First World status, by the 1960s, has served as a powerful role model and inspiration for Asean members.

Second, Japan played the role of the leader goose, in what Dr Saburo Okita has described as the flying geese pattern of development in Asia. Flying behind Japan, were the four newly industrialised economies of South Korea Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. They were able to tap into Japan’s capital and technology. Behind them flew China and the rest of Asean.

Third, Japan is the third largest major investor in the Asean. Foreign direct investment flows from Japan to Asean amounted to US$14 billion in 2016, accounting for 14.5 per cent of FDI inflows into Asean.

In recent years, Japan has reduced its investment in China and increased its investment in Asean. Japanese companies have created new regional production networks by establishing plants in the different Southeast Asian countries, to make different components, reflecting their comparative economic advantages.

Fourth, Asean believes that trade is more important than aid. Trade between Asean and Japan is booming, amounting to US$209 billion in 2016. Japan is Asean’s fourth largest trading partner, after China, the European Union and the United States.

Asean is Japan’s second largest trading partner, after China. The Asean-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership came into force in 2008. They are members of the 16-party Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership negotiations. When concluded this will create the largest free trade area in the world.

Fifth, tourism is an important sector in all the Asean economies. Japan is a major source of tourism for Asean, with 4.8 million Japanese visiting Southeast Asia in 2016. In 2015, 2.28 million Asean tourists visited Japan.

Sixth, Japan is the largest provider of Official Development Assistance (ODA) to the less developed members of Asean. From 1967 to 2015, Japan’s ODA to Asean amounted to US$75 billion.

I am generally sceptical about the value of ODA and applaud Singapore’s decision, taken at the time of its birth, not to solicit for or receive ODA. However, in spite of the leakages and other imperfections, I think it would be fair to say that Japanese ODA to Asean has done more good than harm.

Japan is helping ASEAN to fulfill its Connectivity Initiatives. Japan was the first Asean Dialogue Partner to establish its own connectivity Task Force, to engage with the Asean Connectivity Coordinating Committee.

Japan has identified 70 projects relating to the three core areas of its support for Asean Connectivity. Japan has also proposed the Partnership for Quality Infrastructure which is of interest to Asean.

RESERVOIR OF GOODWILL

There is an English saying that, “A friend in need is a friend indeed.” Japan proved the sincerity of its friendship for Asean, during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Japan came to the rescue of all the countries affected by the crisis: Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and South Korea. In addition, Japan proposed the establishment of an Asian Monetary Fund, which was vetoed by the US and International Monetary Fund.

Following the crisis, Japan proposed the so-called Chiang Mai Initiative, bringing together the finance ministers and central bank governors of the 10 Asean members, plus those of China, Japan and South Korea. The objective was to promote closer financial cooperation among the 13 countries.

For these reasons, there is a reservoir of goodwill in Asean for Japan. This was amply demonstrated in March 2011 when Japan was struck by the triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami and the failure of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. There was an outpouring of sympathy and support from the citizens of Asean for the victims of the triple disaster. A friend in need is a friend indeed. 

By Professor Tommy Koh: Asean and European Union: A North-South success story

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The terms “north” and “south” have special meanings in the vocabulary of political science and international relations. The term, North, refers to the rich or developed countries which are usually located in the northern hemisphere. 

The term, South, refers to the poor or developing countries which are usually located in the southern hemisphere. Relations between North and South have often been contentious.

The harmonious relationship between ASEAN and the European Union is therefore unusual and a North-South success story.

The dialogue partnership between ASEAN and EU began in 1977. In the past 41 years, the world has changed. The two organisations and their relationship with each other have also been transformed.

In this essay, I will focus on the strength of their present relationship and its future prospects.

The European Union does not enjoy a good press. Few people remember that the EU has kept the peace in Europe for over 60 years.

Trade and aid

Even without the United Kingdom, it is the second largest economy in the world, accounting for 24.7 percent of global GDP and 14.2 percent of world trade.

The EU is also the world’s biggest importer and exporter. It is also the world’s largest provider and recipient of direct investment.

The EU is ASEAN’s largest investor with a total cumulative investment of €131.6 billion in 2015. It is ASEAN’s second largest trading partner, in goods, accounting for 13.5 percent of ASEAN’s trade in 2015.

The two-way trade in 2016 stood at €201.5 billion. The trade in services is also substantial, totalling €67.4 billion in 2014.

ASEAN has kept the peace in Southeast Asia for over 50 years.

Economically, ASEAN is an important partner of the EU. The ASEAN economy is the fifth largest in the world. It is projected to become the fourth largest by 2050. The ASEAN economy has been growing at above 5 percent per annum in recent years.

ASEAN is EU’s fourth largest trading partner after the United States, China and Switzerland. The 10-member Southeast Asian grouping offers a market of 629 million consumers.

ASEAN’s imports from EU in 2015 was €83 billion. ASEAN’s imports have grown by 80 percent in the past 10 years. Importantly, the ASEAN economy is open and welcomes foreign investment.

ASEAN upholds free trade and economic integration. It also upholds the rule of law and the freedom of navigation.

The EU is a generous supporter of ASEAN in two ways. First, it provides significant Official Development Assistance to the less developed members of ASEAN.

Second, the EU supports ASEAN’s integration, with contributions totalling €268 million.

In addition, the EU has pledged over €2 billion to ASEAN countries bilaterally, to address their development gaps and to reduce poverty.

FTA negotiations

Singapore and EU have concluded a Free Trade Agreement. The EU has also concluded an FTA with Vietnam and is currently negotiating with four other ASEAN members.

The Singapore-EU FTA was intended to be a paving stone for a larger ASEAN-EU FTA.

At present, the European Commission and ASEAN are studying the merit of relaunching negotiations for an ASEAN-EU FTA.

We should proceed without undue delay. An FTA between ASEAN and the EU will create a combined market of over 1 billion consumers. It will be a game changer.

ASEAN wants an Open Skies Agreement with the EU. Negotiations for an ASEAN-EU Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement began in 2016. Let us redouble our efforts to conclude the negotiations.

Enhanced connectivity by air between the two regions will bring benefits to trade and tourism.

Cooperation between ASEAN and EU is not confined to the economic domain.

The EU is an active member of the ASEAN Regional Forum. Cooperation in security and defence has expanded to cover many areas of interest to both sides, such as maritime security, migration and border management, and chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

There are two other important areas of cooperation. They are climate change and sustainability. Both ASEAN and EU support the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Both sides also support the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.

The EU is sharing with ASEAN its positive experience in the sustainable use of peatlands, in the reduction of CO2, the transition to a low-carbon economy and the development of sustainable and liveable cities.

The EU is also helping ASEAN to strengthen its management capacities to deal with disasters.

Learning From Each Other

We can and should learn from each other.

What can ASEAN learn from the EU? First, we can learn how the EU has managed to develop and grow rich without ruining its environment.

Second, we can learn how the EU has managed to balance growth with equity.

Third, we can learn from EU’s best practices in good governance and the rule of law.

It may be presumptuous of me to suggest that the EU can learn anything from ASEAN. Let me humbly suggest the following for the consideration of my European friends.

A few years ago, I was shocked to hear three Europeans leaders declaring, in succession, that multi-culturalism did not work.

Several of the ASEAN countries, such as Indonesia and Singapore, are extremely diverse, racially and religiously.

They enjoy a high degree of inter-racial and inter-religious harmony. The experience of these countries suggest that multi-culturalism can work provided you have the right policies and genuine respect for diversities.

There are two other areas of ASEAN’s positive experience which may be of interest to the EU. These are our strong families and our high savings rates.

Common Values and Ideals

We live in a time of uncertainty. The rules-based international order is under threat. Free trade, open economies and globalisation are being challenged. Multilateral institutionswhich support international cooperation, such as the UN and WTO, are being undermined.

At this perilous time, the leaders of ASEAN and EU should stand together to defend our common values and ideals.

Our leaders should consider issuing a joint declaration reiterating our beliefs in free trade, open economies, economic integration, multilateralism and the Rule of Law.

It is also time for the two sides to agree to elevate the relationship to a “Strategic Partnership”.

The ASEAN-EU relationship is strategically important as it brings together two important regions and regional organisations.

I believe both ASEAN and EU have a bright future. The relationship is mutually beneficial. In August 2018, Singapore will become the ASEAN coordinator of the ASEAN-EU relationship.

Singapore will do its best to conclude the ongoing negotiations successfully and to raise the relationship to an even higher peak.

By Professor Tommy Koh: Asean and Australia: From friends to partners

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Last month, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of Australia, invited the leaders of Asean, to attend a Special Summit in Sydney. Nine of Asean’s leaders attended the summit, which was held successfully and ended with the adoption of the Sydney Declaration.

A memorandum of understanding on cooperation to combat international terrorism was signed. At the same time, an Asean-Australia Business Summit and a Conference on Counter-Terrorism, were also held in Sydney.

Australia is Asean’s oldest dialogue partner. The dialogue began in 1974. In the past 44 years, both Asean and Australia have been transformed. The relationship has also changed in some fundamental ways.

What is the value of Asean to Australia? What is the value of Australia to Asean? What are the areas in which they have convergent and divergent interests? What is the future of the relationship?

Many Australians, including some members of the media, are not well informed about Asean. I am told that some younger Australians do not know what the acronym, Asean, stands for.

VALUE OF ASEAN TO AUSTRALIA

As for older Australians, they may see Southeast Asia more as a threat rather than an opportunity, remembering that in the Second World War, Japan attacked Northern Australia from bases in Indonesia.

What is the value of Asean to Australia?

The first value of Asean is economic. Asean has a single market of 635 million consumers. Australia has more trade with Asean than it does with the United States and Japan. Australia has invested over US$73 billion (2016) in Asean.

Asean’s economy (US$2.6 trillion) is twice as big as Australia’s economy (US$1.39 trillion).

Asean’s economy is already the sixth largest in the world and is projected to become the fourth largest by 2030.

Australia – and New Zealand – has a free trade agreement with Asean. There are over 100,000 Asean students studying in Australia universities. 1.4 million Asean citizens visited Australia in last year.

The second value of Asean to Australia is political.

Asean has kept the peace in Southeast Asia for over 50 years. As a neighbour, Australia benefits when the region is at peace.

Australia also benefits from the fact that Asean upholds international law, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Asean supports the freedom of navigation and overflight. It is in favour of a rules-based international and regional order.

In order to promote peace and cooperation in the Asia Pacific, Asean has created such regional institutions as the Asean Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asia Summit (EAS) and has included Australia in both of them.

Australia has a population of only 25 million, smaller than that of Malaysia. Some people in Asean hold negative views of Australia. Such perceptions are based on the old Australia, an Australia which had a protected economy and a white immigration policy.

VALUE OF AUSTRALIA TO ASEAN

In the past 44 years, Australia has been transformed. Today, it has an open economy and champions multi-culturalism. In fact, there are a million Australian citizens with South-east Asian ancestry.

The new Australia embraces its diversity as a strength. The people-to-people links between Asean and Australia add strength to the relationship.

What is Australia’s value to Asean?

Australia brings both economic and political benefits to Asean. Australia is its seventh largest trading partner. Australia is a source of investment, technology and expertise.

Australia is helping Asean to educate and train many of their young people. It shares many of Asean’s values, principles and objectives.

Australia supports the central role which Asean plays in the region’s architecture.

Divergent Interests

There are some divergent interests between Asean and Australia. One example is our relationship with the US.

Australia is a treaty ally of the US In any dispute between the US and another country, Australia would be expected to support the US.

In contrast, Asean’s policy is to be close to all the great powers but not to be aligned with any of them.

The second difference is cultural. Southeast Asians tend to be more patient than Australians. Southeast Asians value face more than Australians do.

Southeast Asians favour mutual accommodation and consensus over clarity and majority rule. Southeast Asians tend to favour compromise over confrontation. They are generally more conservative than Australians and do not share the liberal values which are dear to Australians.

Sometimes, misunderstandings occur between Asean and Australia because of these cultural differences.

Convergent Interests

ASEAN and Australia enjoy more convergent interests than divergent interests. We believe in free trade, open economies and economic integration. We believe in the reality of climate change and will implement our responsibilities under the Paris Agreement conscientiously.

We believe in the United Nations, World Trade Organisation, International Civil Aviation Organisation, International Atomic Energy Agency, and other multilateral institutions of global governance

We believe that the South China Sea is part of the global commons and is governed by UNCLOS.

We support the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. We wish to make the Asia-Pacific a region of peace, stability and prosperity. We support a regional architecture which is open, inclusive and led by Asean.

The theme of the Sydney Summit was security and prosperity. The theme overlaps with Asean’s priorities for this year, which are to strengthen our resilience and our capacity for innovation.

At Sydney, the two sides agreed to enhance our cooperation to combat terrorism, threats to cyber security, human-trafficking and other transnational crime.

We also agreed to work together to promote the digital economy and smart cities. We seek to conclude the negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) this year.

Asean and Australia are determined to forge a bright future for themselves and for the Asia-Pacific region.

Sailing the Krakatoa seas

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Scenic sunset in Kepulauan Seribu (“Thousand Islands”) on the 6th day of the voyage (Photo: Shermaine Yung)

 

On 25 February, 15 NUS staff, students and alumni set off on a week-long NUS Study Trips for Engagement and EnRichment (STEER) voyage in collaboration with Tembusu College, from Jakarta to the Krakatoa archipelago. The trip was the ninth voyage by NUS Seafarers, an initiative of the Office of the Senior Deputy President and Provost, which has to date brought more than 100 NUS students and alumni on experiential sailing trips across Indonesia and the Philippines, teaching them about the biodiversity, as well as the economic, cultural and geographical aspects of these maritime nations. 

Associate Professor Martin Henz, NUS Computing and NUS Engineering, and Dr John van Wyhe, NUS Biological Sciences and Tembusu College Fellow pen their insights on the voyage. 

How might one fathom the vastness of the biggest explosion in human history, the Krakatoa eruption of 1883? Can textbooks ever adequately convey the immensity of such events, the destruction they wreak and the regional and even global fallout they produce?

The Krakatoa catastrophe took place only 135 years ago, and many of the resulting geological features still stand in plain sight. Thus, our response to the educational challenge was to take the students on-site and immerse them in the landscape formed by that catastrophic event.

We organised a Tembusu College STEER voyage — our “Recess Week Volcano Voyage” — to the Krakatoa archipelago for nine NUS students, two international exchange students and two NUS alumni.

We boarded the 78-foot staysail schooner “Four Friends” in Jakarta on 24 February, set sail on the afternoon of 25 February, and reached the Krakatoa archipelago in the Sunda Strait in the early morning hours of the following day.

In front of Rakata Island, the largest remnant of the original Krakatoa volcano (Photo: Shermaine Yung)


The next three days provided ample opportunities to study the archipelago, consisting of Rakata, the tallest island which is often partially hidden by clouds and comprises the southern flank of the original pre-1883 Krakatoa volcano; two smaller Krakatoa remnants called Rakata Kechil and Sertung; and Anak Krakatau, a new volcanic island that emerged in 1927 from the vast seafloor hole created by the explosion.

We explored the sea life that had re-established itself after the catastrophe, including several coral reefs and a large pod of dolphins, while snorkelling and navigating the area. We hiked through the tropical forests of Rakata and Rakata Kechil, which had grown back in the past 135 years on the fertile ash that the explosion had deposited on the surrounding islands. We established the heights of the peaks of Anak Krakatau (302m) and Rakata (810m) using sextant, GPS, radar and high school trigonometry.

 

We examined rock samples from all four islands and conjectured their likely origin. While kayaking, we discovered pumice (volcanic rock) from recent eruptions, floating (yes, pumice is often lighter than water!) and washing up on the shores of the islands. We studied modern and historical maps and charts to complement our first-hand experiences.

Then, on 28 February, our third day in the archipelago, the stars aligned. A steady northerly monsoon wind exposed a cloud- and gas-free ascent path on the northern flank of Anak Krakatau. The seismic readings that we monitored using a satellite phone and with a Singapore-based collaborator showed benign levels of volcanic activity, and visual inspection of the crater elevated our hopes that a visit to the summit might be possible that day. We landed on the island using our motor boat and kayaks and made our way to the foot of the mountain through a vast and rugged lava field.

“Dr John” — as he was endearingly called by the students — scouted out a suitable route for our ascent, while the remaining team further inspected the lava field. Year 2 NUS Computer Science and University Scholars Programme (USP) student Chu Qinghao, Year 4 NUS Industrial Systems Engineering and Management student Daren Lau and Assoc Prof Henz decided to follow in the footholds that Dr John had prepared for them. Continuous Very High Frequency communication with the nearby anchored schooner and with each other during the ascent enabled us to react to any possible changes in the cloud pattern over the volcano and other signs of danger.

 

Climbing a field of solidified lava leading to the crater of Anak Krakatau (Photo: Martin Henz)

The summit provided breathtaking views of the seascape towards Sumatra. Breathtaking in quite a different sense was the direction towards the caldera! We saw a complex amalgamation of igneous rock and ash riddled with a myriad of tiny holes from which hot water vapour and volcanic gases oozed. We flew a drone over the caldera and took movies and pictures, before carefully descending along the same path.

“The best part of the trip for me was being able to see Krakatoa itself up close after having read and heard so much about it. The scale of the place was astounding and I still find it hard to believe that I was at the site of such a significant event,” said Year 4 NUS Geography student Grace Tang.

Another participant, Year 2 NUS Business and USP student Wong Li Ching called it a multisensory learning experience in nature’s classroom. “Spontaneous activities undertaken during the voyage encouraged experimentation and calculated risk-taking — these can hardly be learnt in the safe and organised learning environment in university. I felt connected to nature again,” she said.

Nicholas Seow, Year 4 NUS Geography student, added that the voyage proved that “geography is everywhere, you just need to be inquisitive and daring”.

Indeed, what better place to grasp the scale of the 1883 Krakatoa explosion than on top of the crater of Anak Krakatau, which grew from the depths of the sea at the site of the original volcano, with vapour and gases emerging from the ground on which we stood?

By Professor Tommy Koh: Why Asean is good for the US

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Asean is important to the US for three reasons: geo-strategic, economic and political.

I will focus first on the geo-strategic. The United States is a superpower. As a superpower, it has interests all over the world, including South-east Asia.

What is the geo-strategic significance of South-east Asia to the United States?

The 10 countries of this region have a combined population of 630 million, which is twice the size of the US population. The region is well endowed with natural resources. It is the world’s seventh largest economy with a GDP of US$2.4 trillion (S$3.2 trillion) and is on a trajectory to become the fourth largest by 2050.

The world’s most important sealane, the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, passes through the waters of the region. The Lombok Strait, the Sunda Strait and the South China Sea are also important to international shipping and maritime trade.

Of the 10 member states of Asean, two, namely the Philippines and Thailand, are treaty allies of the US. They are designated as “major non-Nato allies”.

The US also has close defence ties with Malaysia and Singapore. The US Defence Department carries out joint military exercises with all the Asean countries. In 2015, the US and Asean raised their relationship to a “Strategic Partnership”.

ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE

The second importance of Asean to the US is economic. The US has invested more in Asean – US$306.5 billion – than in China, India, Japan and South Korea, combined.

Asean investment in the US, US$33 billion, is modest. It is, however, larger than China’s investment in the United States.

Asean is the fourth largest trading partner of the US. In 2016, the two-way trade stood at US$262.9 billion. The US has a surplus in trade in services. Asean has a surplus in trade in goods.

 

Even more business opportunities will emerge for American companies, given the region’s good growth prospects and its growing middle class.

I want to acknowledge that some US companies are sceptical about Asean economic integration and the Asean Economic Community.

Their experience on the ground shows that our journey is incomplete and there remains non-tariff barriers to doing business across borders. They feel that Asean has not yet become a single market.

At the same time, I would point out that Asean remains committed to free trade, economic integration and open economies. Asean is growing at about 5 per cent per annum. Its embrace of the digital economy, e-commerce and e-payment will boost our growth and create many new opportunities for US business.

It has been estimated that US exports to Asean, of over US$100 billion (S$132 billion), support 550,000 jobs for American workers. Many US companies, including many of the leading US multinational corporations, have a presence in Asean. Singapore alone hosts 4,200 US companies.

Tourism is another booming sector. In 2015, 3.5 million Americans visited Asean. A smaller number of Asean citizens, 780,000, visited the US in the same year.

It has been estimated that Asean visitors add US$5 billion to the US economy. The 55,000 Asean students studying in the US add another US$1.7 billion to the US economy.

Finally, the US has a Free Trade Agreement with Singapore, a trade agreement with Vietnam, and Trade and Investment Framework Agreements with Asean and nine of the Asean member states. The Trump administration is happy with the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement as the US enjoys a trade surplus with Singapore. 

POLITICAL IMPORTANCE 

The third importance of Asean to the United States is political.

Asean has kept the peace in South-east Asia for 51 years. It has created and chairs several regional institutions, which include the United States, such as the Asean Regional Forum, the East Asia Summit and the Asean Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus.

These forums are open and inclusive and help to improve mutual understanding and reduce suspicion and mistrust. In this way, Asean helps to maintain peace, stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific.

The US and Asean cooperate to deal with several non-traditional security challenges, such as humanitarian emergencies, the trafficking of drugs and humans, counter-terrorism, cyber security, non-proliferation, transnational crime, climate change, pandemic disease, and so on.

The US and Asean share some beliefs, such as, the rule of law, the peaceful settlement of disputes, and respect for international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

As a mark of respect for Asean and an acknowledgement of Asean’s importance to the US, in 2016, then President Barack Obama invited the 10 leaders of Asean and the Asean Secretary-General, to a special US-Asean Leaders’ Summit. The venue was Sunnylands, California, the same venue where President Obama had hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013.

The US-Asean Summit adopted the Sunnylands Declaration, which is a very significant document. It contains some consequential language such as, “US respect and support for Asean centrality and Asean-led mechanisms in the evolving architecture of the Asia-Pacific” and “the shared commitment to peaceful resolution of disputes, including full respect for legal and diplomatic processes in accordance with the universally recognised principles of international law and the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea”.

LOOKING AHEAD

I am pleased that the Trump administration appears to have continued with the previous administration’s pro-Asean policy. In April last year, US Vice-President Mike Pence visited the Asean Secretariat in Jakarta, becoming the most senior US leader to do so.

We appreciated his visit to our region, made when the administration was only three months old.

During his first year in office, President Donald Trump had invited four Asean leaders to visit him at the White House. The President attended the commemorative US-Asean Leaders’ Summit, in Manila,

last year.

He has accepted Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s invitation to visit Singapore this year, possibly for the Asean-US Summit. We look forward to welcoming him to Singapore.

Many congratulations to our Rector, Prof Koh, on receiving the Padma Shri Award

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On Thursday, 25 January 2018, Professor Tommy Koh was awarded the Padma Shri Award by the Republic of India. The Padma Awards are among the highest civilian honours given by India, and the awardees are named annually on the eve of Republic Day.

He was one of only ten individuals from Asean who were chosen to receive the Padma Shri, the fourth highest civilian honour which is awarded for “distinguished service” in various fields. 

We at Tembusu College send our heartiest congratulations to our dear Rector on this wonderful occasion. 

Tembusu Reading Pods AY2017/18 Sem 2

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Register for your reading pod at Eventbrite by 4 Feb 2018

Read a book this semester with one of our four reading pod facilitators. Those interested may register for your reading pod at Eventbrite (click on the link). Deadline: 4 February 2018. Each reading pod accommodates only 5 participants excluding the facilitator(s). Hurry while stocks last.

You only need pay S$10 for the book of your choice. An email will be sent to participants to collect your book voucher (likely mid-February) from the Tembusu College Office when it is ready then proceed to make payment and collect your book at Bookhaven (UTown). Participants are liable to purchase the book once registration is confirmed. Starting date and venue for each reading pod to be confirmed. The facilitator will contact you via email.

Click on the images for more information.

  1. Catherine Nixey’s The Darkening Age: The Christian Destruction of the Classical Worldled by Dr John van Wyhe
    **Hardcopy of the books at subsidized rate will be provided to the first 5 sign-ups. Subsequent sign-ups are welcome to join in the reading pod but books will not be provided. 

  2. Vladimir Nabokov’s Pale Fire led by Dr Adam Groves

  3. Thant Myint-U’s River of Lost Footsteps led by Mr Reuben Wang
  4. William MacAskill’s Doing Good Better led Ashley Angela Toh
    **This is a combined reading pod with CAPT, with the reading pod conducted at Tembusu College.